Atlantic Hurricane Season: Current Calm and Future Predictions

As the Atlantic hurricane season approaches, concerns have arisen about above-average hurricane activity, driven by cutbacks in the government meteorological agency. However, the impact of the season has been moderate so far. Although September 10 is historically the peak of hurricane activity in the Atlantic, the basin has experienced nearly two weeks without any tropical storms on the horizon, and no activity is expected in the coming week either.

Hurricanes and the Current Calm

Experts warn that the current lull in tropical activity does not mean the hurricane threat for this year is over or that forecasters’ predictions for the season were incorrect. The last tropical storm, Fernand, dissipated on August 28. Earlier this month, meteorologists were monitoring a system they believed could develop into a dangerous storm, but it encountered dry air and disintegrated.

Today, the National Hurricane Center’s map from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration presents an optimistic forecast: a map free of disturbances, indicating that meteorologists do not expect any significant tropical activity in the next seven days.

Meteorological Phenomena and Their Impact on Hurricanes

The current calm in tropical activity is not unusual, but it is rare to see such calm during the peak of hurricane season. This is mainly due to a global meteorological phenomenon called the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which moves high air masses eastward around the planet every month or two. High air tends to be drier, hindering the development of tropical storms.

Last month, the Madden-Julian Oscillation positioned low air, which can enhance tropical activity, over the Atlantic Ocean. Indeed, Hurricane Irene formed and developed into a Category 5 storm, although it mostly remained over the ocean.

Future Predictions for Tropical Activity

Meteorologists expect that within 10 to 14 days, the global cycle will return low-pressure conditions over the Atlantic Ocean, making the atmosphere more conducive to tropical activity once again. Additionally, many key factors for hurricane formation remain present. Any tropical storm must start as a seed storm, and seed storms are still forming at their usual rate.

Hurricanes are fueled by warm ocean waters, which have been abundant this year. Wind shear, which can tear apart a developing storm, has been slightly elevated but not enough to prevent serious tropical activity if other factors align.

Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts

In May, meteorologists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced their forecast for the season: a total of 13 to 19 combined tropical storms and hurricanes, including six to ten hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher. So far, six tropical storms have formed, with only Irene becoming a hurricane, but it reached Category 5 intensity.

This means that the season overall, which officially runs from June 1 to November 30, is developing with the expected strength, and a significant threat remains.

Conclusion

This hurricane season cannot yet be dismissed. Even last year offers a cautionary lesson, as it saw unprecedented tropical activity in late September and beyond. “The hurricane season is still ongoing,” says McNoldy. “We have half the season left, so I have no doubt we will be monitoring storms more closely than we would like soon.”