Predicting Liver Disease Risk with a New Blood Test Model

Liver diseases are becoming increasingly prevalent, and their consequences can be severe if not detected early. In this context, researchers at the Karolinska Institute in Sweden have developed a new method to predict the risk of severe liver diseases over a 10-year period using three simple routine blood tests.

Overview of the Study

Researchers at the Karolinska Institute, in collaboration with colleagues in Finland, conducted a study to evaluate the effectiveness of this method in estimating the risk of severe liver diseases. The model, named CORE, was developed using advanced statistical methods and is based on five factors: age, gender, and levels of three common liver enzymes: AST, ALT, and GGT.

This tool aims to facilitate early screening for liver diseases in primary care, where most patients seek medical attention for the first time. This represents a significant step towards providing better healthcare through the early detection of liver disease risks.

Practical Application of the Model

An online calculator is currently available for doctors and nurses at www.core-model.com. This tool is designed to be user-friendly in a primary care setting, making it easier for medical staff to estimate the risk of severe liver diseases and provide timely treatment.

The researchers also note that drug treatment is currently available, and it is hoped that it will soon be available in Sweden to treat individuals at risk of conditions such as cirrhosis or liver cancer.

Results and Future Challenges

The study was based on data from over 480,000 people in Stockholm who underwent health examinations between 1985 and 1996. By following the participants for up to 30 years, the researchers found that about 1.5% developed severe liver diseases or required a liver transplant.

The CORE model demonstrated high accuracy in prediction, correctly distinguishing between those who developed the disease and those who did not in 88% of cases, representing an improvement over the currently recommended FIB-4 method. However, the researchers emphasize the need to test the model on high-risk groups such as patients with type 2 diabetes or obesity.

Collaboration and Financial Support

The study was a result of collaboration between the Karolinska Institute, Helsinki University Hospital, the University of Helsinki, and the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare. It was funded by the Swedish Research Council, the Stockholm Region (CIMED), and the Swedish Cancer Society.

Researcher Hans Hagström is involved in several collaborations with the pharmaceutical industry regarding liver disease predictions, but none of these collaborations are related to the current study.

Conclusion

The development of the CORE model is an important step towards improving the diagnosis of severe liver diseases. By integrating this tool into primary care settings, doctors and nurses can provide better patient care and prevent serious complications in the future. With ongoing research and testing, this model could become a global standard for estimating liver disease risks.