Challenges of Increasing Satellite Density in Low Earth Orbit

Low Earth orbits are experiencing a significant increase in the number of satellites, raising questions about safety and efficiency in space operations. A recent study reveals a rise in maneuvers to avoid collisions, which could greatly complicate space operations.

Increasing Density in Orbit

Since 2019, the number of objects in low Earth orbit has increased from 13,700 to 24,185 by 2025, a rise of 76%. This increase includes not only new satellites but also space debris, adding further complexity to the orbit.

The study shows that the percentage of satellites performing more than 10 collision avoidance maneuvers per month has risen from 0.2% in 2019 to 1.4% in 2025. Although this percentage seems small, it means that around 340 satellites spend considerable time avoiding debris and other vehicles.

Challenges of Collision Avoidance

The study highlights that space operations become more complex with the increased number of maneuvers needed to avoid collisions. Operators prefer not to use fuel for these maneuvers, as it affects the satellites’ lifespan and increases operational costs.

Companies like SpaceX use autonomous systems for collision avoidance, setting more precise standards compared to other agencies like NASA. This reflects the differences in operational strategies between companies and space agencies.

Risks from Maneuvers

Apart from operational complexities, the study indicates that maneuvers themselves may increase the risk of future collisions, as changing a satellite’s trajectory could make it vulnerable to collisions with unforeseen objects.

Previous research shows that such maneuvers could create more space debris, further complicating the space environment and making collision prediction more difficult.

Global Coordination in Space

The study recommends that operators use space more effectively by reducing launches in crowded orbits and coordinating between different constellations to avoid path overlaps. However, some experts doubt the feasibility of achieving effective global coordination between different countries and companies.

With more countries launching large groups of satellites, such as China, coordination becomes more complex and may not be practical in the near future.

Conclusion

As the number of satellites in low Earth orbit continues to grow, the complexities associated with avoiding collisions and maintaining safe space operations increase. International coordination and advance planning are potential solutions to reduce risks and enhance the effective use of space. However, the greatest challenge remains achieving a balance between technological growth and maintaining a safe and sustainable space environment.