The Role of Mathematics in Papal Elections

In a world characterized by mystery and ancient traditions, the election of a pope is a rare and complex event. A recent study from Bocconi University in Milan has shown how mathematics, specifically network science, can play a role in predicting the outcomes of this significant event. By analyzing the social networks of relationships among cardinals, researchers have provided new insights into how “prestige” influences the results.

History of Papal Elections

Papal elections are among the most secretive events in the religious world. These elections are held in the Sistine Chapel at the Vatican, where Catholic Church cardinals gather to choose the new pope. This event is marked by secrecy and ancient traditions that date back centuries.

Historically, the selection of a pope has depended on voting by cardinals who pledge to maintain the confidentiality of the process. However, this complex system has always intrigued analysts and observers who seek to understand the internal dynamics of the conclave.

The Role of Mathematics and Social Networks

In an attempt to understand this complex process, researchers from Bocconi University turned to mathematics, specifically social network science. They analyzed the personal and professional relationships among cardinals using techniques derived from mathematics.

These relationships include joint work in Vatican departments, mentorships, and friendships. By mapping a social network among the cardinals, the researchers were able to apply network science techniques to determine the “prestige” or relative influence of each cardinal.

Prestige and Its Impact on Elections

One of the key concepts used in the study is the concept of “prestige” within the social network. This concept relies on the “degree centrality” theory, which measures the number of connections an individual has within the network. However, this theory may overlook the influence of connections with more powerful figures.

Therefore, the researchers employed “eigenvector centrality,” a more complex technique that considers the influence of connections with more influential individuals. This technique allows for assessing a cardinal’s influence not only based on the number of acquaintances but also on the prestige of those acquaintances.

Other Applications of Eigenvector Centrality

The use of eigenvector centrality is not limited to papal elections. It has been applied in other fields such as epidemiology to identify individuals who could be key transmitters of diseases, as well as in neuroscience to analyze neural communication patterns.

Additionally, Google uses a similar concept when ranking web pages in search results, relying on the PageRank algorithm, which considers the importance of the pages linked to them.

Conclusion

This study demonstrates how mathematics can reveal new insights into ancient and complex practices like papal elections. Although the success of this methodology in recent elections may be coincidental, the results suggest that understanding networks and relationships can have a significant impact on predicting outcomes in the future. Mathematics remains a powerful tool for understanding the world around us, whether in a religious, scientific, or social context.